September 4-5, 2014: The sixth annual True Contrarian conference was held on September 4-5, 2014. We discussed the significance of the underperformance of small-cap U.S. equity indices and funds including IWC and IWM since March 6, 2014, and the implications of most investors ignoring this classic bearish warning in spite of its proven reliability. As investors discover that their favorite index funds are no longer gaining, they will become progressively eager to switch into alternatives. Whichever alternatives grab most people's attention, partly from recent strong outperformance and partly from being intrinsically undervalued, will likely be among the biggest percentage gainers through 2015 or 2016. As usual, the most valuable clues can often be obtained by examining how investors have reacted emotionally to asset price fluctuations: repeatedly buying whichever securities have been in the most uninterrupted uptrends regardless of the downside risk, while avoiding the most compelling assets if their trading action has been especially choppy. Instead of being proactive, most investors do nothing until circumstances turn unfavorable, thereby giving those who intelligently plan ahead the opportunity to anticipate what is most likely to occur and to benefit by being among the earliest to participate in any concept before the crowd eagerly jumps aboard the bandwagon.
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October 2-3, 2013: At the fifth annual True Contrarian conference on October 2-3, 2013, most developed equity markets are trading at or near their all-time highs, while emerging markets and mining shares are barely above their lowest points since the summer of 2009 and in some cases are their most undervalued since the fourth quarter of 2008. In a roundtable discussion, we explore how such a situation provides investors with unusual opportunities now, and what to be alert for during the upcoming year. The relationship between emotional human behavior and the action in the global financial markets is examined. A blueprint for asset allocation is presented, after which we debate its pros and cons. We also discuss how to recognize when the next major equity bear market is approaching and the most compelling ways to profit from it.
To see a sample clip and order this 4-DVD set, CLICK HERE.
September 13-14, 2012: The fourth annual True Contrarian conference in September 2012 features the late innings of a multi-year bull market. This provides a delicate balancing act, since selling too soon will rob investors of the lion's share of the profits which often occur during the final weeks of any rally. At the same time, it is necessary to prepare carefully to accumulate those assets which will gain the most during the ensuing equity bear market which will likely be roughly two years in duration and should be about as severe as the slump during 2007-2009. The incredible historic disparity between defensive and cyclical assets is a source of enormous opportunity. As always, most amateurs will react emotionally, while hedge-fund managers and other institutional investors will foolishly project the recent past into the indefinite future--both of which will result in subpar performance. Financial advisors will continue to push their clients into the same investments, making them dangerously overvalued while repeatedly ignoring the most compelling bargains.
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April 12 & May 4, 2012: This 2-DVD set features two seminars by Steven Jon Kaplan. The first disc is a talk with NYU Stern Finance Society on "Why Technical Analysis No Longer Works, and What to Do About It". Technical analysis of the financial markets was primarily developed after World War II. It initially had value as a predictive indicator, but began to show increasing signs of inaccuracy in the 1970s and become so useless in the 21st century that doing the reverse became consistently profitable. The second disc is a talk to a class at Johns Hopkins University entitled, "Everything You Know Is Wrong." What does it mean to be a true contrarian? Steve explains the fundamentals of his investment philosophy and how to apply it to real-world situations.
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September 8-9, 2011: This 4-DVD set features the highlights of Steve's intense investor seminar discussions on September 8-9, 2011. While the stock-market slump in 2011 was not nearly as great in percentage terms as the 2007-2009 bear market, it generated a similar emotional response. Most amateur investors made massive outflows from their equity retirement funds while insiders were eagerly scooping up bargains. Paradoxically, since everyone remembers "the lessons of 2008", we will not experience anything close to a repeat performance. Discover the key implications for the financial markets through 2013 and how to navigate the perilous waves during the upcoming 2-1/2 years.
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April 15-16, 2010: This 3-DVD set covers the highlights of the second annual True Contrarian conference on April 14-18, 2010. As the greatest bull market since the Great Depression moves through its final weeks, watch how Steven Jon Kaplan recommends his favorite ways to profit from a two-year bear market. For those who are not U.S. residents, he explains how to benefit from the powerful bull market in the U.S. dollar index. Steve explains why any major market reversal is a process, not an event, and how to recognize the tell-tale fluctuations which signal when it is most essential to buy or sell.
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October 16, 2009: Are the financial markets rational or efficient? Steven Jon Kaplan explains why human emotions and a misguided overreliance on obsolete charting techniques create opportunities which can be seized by those who are alert enough to capitalize on the most illogical extremes. In a seminar led at the Johns Hopkins University on October 16, 2009, Financial Mathematics executive director David Audley introduces Steve to the room of students, subscribers, and others who were curious about the event.
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April 23-24, 2009: The very first True Contrarian conference seminar, features Steven Jon Kaplan proffering his iconoclastic philosophy in front of three dozen attendees at Bali Nusa Indah in Manhattan. Firm in the belief that his ideas are insane only if they don't make you substantial profits, Steve discusses why China's central bank is actually the world's biggest trader and acts (and speaks!) accordingly. He explains how surging inflationary expectations will become the biggest surprise economic theme of 2009, and how to invest accordingly.
To order this Double DVD set, CLICK HERE.
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