The fourth annual True Contrarian conference in September 2012 features the late innings of a multi-year bull market. This provides a delicate balancing act, since selling too soon will rob investors of the lion's share of the profits which often occur during the final weeks of any rally. At the same time, it is necessary to prepare carefully to accumulate those assets which will gain the most during the ensuing equity bear market which will likely be roughly two years in duration and should be about as severe as the slump during 2007-2009. The incredible historic disparity between defensive and cyclical assets is a source of enormous opportunity.
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As always, most amateurs will react emotionally, while hedge-fund managers and other institutional investors will foolishly project the recent past into the indefinite future--both of which will result in subpar performance. Financial advisors will continue to push their clients into the same investments, making them dangerously overvalued while repeatedly ignoring the most compelling bargains.
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