The sixth annual True Contrarian conference was held on September 4-5, 2014. We discussed the significance of the underperformance of small-cap U.S. equity indices and funds including IWC and IWM since March 6, 2014, and the implications of most investors ignoring this classic bearish warning in spite of its proven reliability. As investors discover that their favorite index funds are no longer gaining, they will become progressively eager to switch into alternatives. Whichever alternatives grab most people's attention, partly from recent strong outperformance and partly from being intrinsically undervalued, will likely be among the biggest percentage gainers through 2015 or 2016. As usual, the most valuable clues can often be obtained by examining how investors have reacted emotionally to asset price fluctuations: repeatedly buying whichever securities have been in the most uninterrupted uptrends regardless of the downside risk, while avoiding the most compelling assets if their trading action has been especially choppy.
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Instead of being proactive, most investors do nothing until circumstances turn unfavorable, thereby giving those who intelligently plan ahead the opportunity to anticipate what is most likely to occur and to benefit by being among the earliest to participate in any concept before the crowd eagerly jumps aboard the bandwagon.
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